Climate Synthesis

Climate Projections

Since its creation in the 1980s, the IPCC has released several assessments on climate change, combining the expertise of thousands of scientists and encompassing multiple aspects of weather and climate (IPCC). While the projections released within these reports are but one source, they are compiled using a multitude of models and projection parameters to ensure the most realistic outputs possible, tied to multiple possible futures. Will they be 100% accurate? No. No model can fully predict the future, no matter how advanced, and shocks in the global system can and do happen – especially when we look multiple decades into the future. In addition, no graphs or maps should show the full complexity of climate change upon local areas, as ripple effects from a changing climate will affect each area differently.

Temperature

If we look globally, the latest IPCC report from 2023 (IPCC) puts out several versions of projections for how climate change looks in regards to temperature, wettest day precipitation, and mean soil moisture. Each column represents a different change in the average global temperature, from 1.5℃ to 4℃ (7.2℉), as compared to 1850-1900 averages. For comparison, the 2010s as a decade were already 1.1℃ above this historic climate. Just as dangerous as these temperature increases, we see that the areas with the largest increases are focused along the north pole, which will increasingly contribute to melting ice in this region, exacerbating ocean rise (Hansen et al, 2016). While an increase of 4℃ that may not sound like a lot, it also means that days that historically would have been over 100℉ would also increase by 7.2℉ on average, and with changing weather systems, these heat waves could be increasingly exacerbated (Barriopedro et al, 2023).

Precipitation

Similarly, changes in temperature will lead to changes in precipitation patterns, caused by changes to evaporation rates and the inherent ability of warmer air to hold more moisture at once (Clausius-Clapeyron relation). Not only will this increase overall precipitation amounts globally (at a rate of around 7% per 1℃ of warming), but can also increase the rate at which precipitation falls during events, increasing the likelihood of localized flooding (IPCC, Prein et al, 2016). Increased evaporation rates will additionally dry out areas faster, leading to drier soil and increased risks of events like landslides when precipitation does occur. This leads to areas where total precipitation increases, even as soil has less moisture overall, which will affect local ecosystems and crop growth (Lesk et al, 2022). As with temperature, effects will not be felt equally around the planet, and individual communities will feel these changes differently depending on aspects including local infrastructure, proximity to bodies of water, and latitude (Trenberth, 2011).

References

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